Dr. Nedjeljka Žagar: On the properties of the global weather forecast errors
Source: Monday physics colloquium
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On the properties of the global weather forecast errors
Dr. Nedjeljka Žagar, Fakulteta za matematiko in fiziko, Univerza v Ljubljani
A significant contribution to the progress of the numerical weather prediction (NWP) in the last two decades has been due to the reduced uncertainty in the initial conditions. This seminar will describe the uncertainty of the initial conditions for NWP and the errors in the forecast fields. Since the true state of the atmosphere is not known, uncertainties and errors need to be represented by surrogate quantities with statistical and dynamical properties assumed similar to those of the unknown variables. The seminar will discuss the balance issues and present the stationary and flow-dependent properties of the errors fields in the real NWP systems and in the idealized simulations involving no model error.