Dr. Andrija Volkanovski: Probabilistic safety analyses
Source: Monday physics colloquium
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PROBABILISTIC SAFETY ANALYSES
Dr. Andrija Vokanovski
Institut J. Stefan
Probabilistic safety analysis methodology estimates nuclear accident with core melt every 10.000 reactor-operation-years. Actual numbers shows that this probability is closer to 1:1000 reactor-operation-years. Despite this difference the Probabilistic Safety Analysis methodology is being used for assessment of reliability and safety of the various complex systems including aeronautics, nuclear power plants, aviation, and is spreading to other industries. The historical development and utilization of the Probabilistic Safety Analysis in American space program followed by the use for the assessment of the nuclear power plants safety will be presented. The methodology will be described with practical examples. The main challenges and future developments of the methodology will be given in the conclusions.