Dr. Joseph Tribbia: The predictability of the atmosphere: Is two-dimensional turbulence a good model?

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    The predictability of the atmosphere: Is two-dimensional turbulence a good model?

    Dr. Joseph Tribbia, National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, Colorado, ZDA

Historically, both two-dimensional and quasi-geostrophic (Q-G) turbulence have served as paradigms for the behavior of the atmosphere on the large scale. Both barotropic (2D) and baroclinic (quasi-3D) systems have been used to understand the nature of the atmospheric energy spectrum and the flow of information and uncertainty through scale interactions. Despite their similarity with respect to inviscid constraints, the details of the growth of uncertainty and the loss of predictability due to small scale errors is considerably different in 2D and Q-G turbulence and both differ from more realistic models of the atmosphere in important ways. My talk will discuss  and analyze the nature of these differences using structures obtained  through non-modal linear  analysis techniques.