Dr. Gregor Skok: Verification of numerical weather prediction model precipitation
Povzetek:
Verification of numerical weather prediction model precipitation
Dr. Gregor Skok, Fakulteta za matematiko in fiziko, Univerza v Ljubljani
The short term precipitation amounts can vary greatly over short distances and the models have great problems in correctly predicting the amount and location of precipitation. This two reasons make meaningful verification of model precipitation especially hard. The traditional verification/comparison methods which compare grid point values do not work satisfactory for short term precipitation comparison due to requirement of good match between forecasts and observations (the so called "double penalty problem"). In the last 10 to 15 years new methods have been developed to address this problem. I will present my work on a new object-based analysis and verification method and show some examples of its application.
