nedjeljka žagar

Peer-reviewed publications


Žagar, N., D. Jelic, M. J. Alexander and E. Manzini, 2018: Estimating subseasonal variability and trends in global atmosphere using reanalysis data, Geophy. Res. Let., 45.

Zaplotnik, Ž., N. Žagar and N. Gustafsson, 2018: An intermediate-complexity model for the four-dimensional variational data assimilation including moist processes, Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc., 144 (715), 1772-1787.

Šavli, M., N. Žagar and J.L. Anderson, 2018: Assimilation of the horizontal line-of-sight winds with a mesoscale EnKF data assimilation system, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 144 (716), 2133-2155.

Doernbrack, A. and Coauthors, 2018: Gravity waves excited during a minor sudden stratospheric warming, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 12915-12931.

Blaauw, M. and N. Žagar, 2018: Multivariate analysis of Kelvin wave seasonal variability in ECMWF L91 analyses, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 8313-8330.


N. Žagar, D. Jelic, M. Blaauw and P. Bechtold, 2017: Energy spectra and inertia-gravity waves in global analyses, J. Atmos. Sci., 74 (8), 2447-2466.

N. Žagar, 2017: A global perspective of the limits of prediction skill of NWP models, Tellus A, 69, 1317573.

N. Žagar, M. Horvat, Ž. Zaplotnik and L. Magnusson, 2017: Scale-dependent estimates of the growth of forecast uncertainties in a global prediction system, Tellus A, 69, 1287492. Martin's Python tool for fitting the error data

N. Žagar, J. Bojarova, N. Gustafsson, T. Janjic, G-J. Marseille, M. Rennie, A. Stoffelen and M. Savli, 2017: Summary of Ljubljana workshop on “Mesoscale data assimilation and the role of winds in limited-area models for NWP in Europe”, ALADIN-HIRLAM Newsletter, 8, 119-123. Also (not peer-reviewed)


N. Žagar, J.L. Anderson, N. Collins, T. Hoar, K. Raeder, L. Lei and J. Tribbia, 2016: Scale-Dependent Representation of the Information Content of Observations in the Global Ensemble Kalman Filter Data Assimilation, Mon. Wea. Rev., 144 (8), 2927-2945,

Žagar, N. , J. Boyd, A. Kasahara, J. Tribbia, E. Källén, H. Tanaka and J.-I. Yano, 2016: Normal modes of atmospheric variability in observations, numerical weather prediction and climate models. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00325.1

Vilibić, I., J. Šepić, H. Mihanović, H. Kalinić, S. Cosoli, I. Janeković, N. Žagar , B. Jesenko, M. Tudor, V. Dadić, and D. Ivanković, Damir, 2016: Self-organizing maps-based ocean currents forecasting system. Scientific reports, 6, 22924, doi: 10.1038/srep22924.

Vilibić, I., H. Kalinić, H. Mihanović, S. Cosoli, M. Tudor, N. Žagar and B. Jesenko, 2016: Sensitivity of HF radar-derived surface current self-organizing maps to various processing procedures and mesoscale wind forcing. Computat. geosci., 20, 115-131, doi: 10.1007/s10596-015-9550-3.

Rakovec, J., G. Skok, R. Žabkar and N. Žagar , 2016: The influence of the depth of a very shallow cool-pool lake on nocturnal cooling. Agr. Forest. Meteorol., 203, 17-29.

Skok, G., N. Žagar , L. Honzak, R. Žabkar, J. Rakovec and A. Ceglar, 2016: Precipitation intercomparison of a set of satellite- and raingauge-derived datasets, ERA Interim reanalysis, and a single WRF regional climate simulation over Europe and the North Atlantic. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 123, 217-232.

Žagar , N., M. Blaauw, B. Jesenko and L. Magnusson, 2016: Diagnosing model performance in the tropics. ECMWF newsletter, 147, 26-33. (not a peer-review paper)


N. Žagar, R. Buizza and J. Tribbia, 2015: A Three-Dimensional Multivariate Modal Analysis of Atmospheric Predictability with Application to the ECMWF Ensemble, J. Atmos. Sci., 72 (11), 4423-4444, doi:10.1175/JAS-D-15-0061.1

N. Žagar and C. Franzke, 2015: Systematic decomposition of the Madden-Julian Oscillation into balanced and inertio-gravity components, Geophy. Res. Lett., doi:10.1002/2015GL065130

N. Žagar, A. Kasahara, K. Terasaki, J. Tribbia and H. Tanaka, 2015: Normal-mode function representation of global 3-D data sets: open-access software for the atmospheric research community, Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1169-1195, doi:10.5194/gmd-8-1169-2015

Strajnar, B., N. Žagar and L. Berre, 2015: Impact of new aircraft observations Mode-S MRAR in a mesoscale NWP model. J. Geophys. Res. – Atmosphere, 120, 3920-3938.

Blažica, V., N. Gustafsson and N. Žagar, 2015: The impact of periodization methods on the kinetic energy spectra for limited-area numerical weather prediction models. Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 87-97.

Žabkar, R., L. Honzak, G. Skok, R. Forkel, J. Rakovec, Ceglar, A. and N. Žagar, 2015: Evaluation of the high resolution WRF-Chem (v3.4.1) air quality forecast and its comparison with statistical ozone predictions. Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2119-2137.


Ceglar, A. L. Honzak, N. Žagar, G. Skok, R. Žabkar and J. Rakovec, 2015: Evaluation of precipitation in the ENSEMBLES regional climate models over the complex orography of Slovenia . Int. Journal of Climatol., 35, 2574-2591

Podglajen, A., Hertzog, A., Plougonven, R. and N. Žagar, 2014: Assessment of the accuracy of (re)analyses in the equatorial lower stratosphere. J. Geophys. Res. - Atmosphere, 119, 11166–11188, DOI: 10.1002/2014JD021849. (abstract)

Cardinali, C., Žagar, N. , Radnoti, G., and Buizza, R., 2014: Representing model error in ensemble data assimilation. Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 21, 971-985, doi:10.5194/npg-21-971-2014. (abstract & pdf)


Žagar, N. , L. Honzak, R. Žabkar, G. Skok, J. Rakovec, and A. Ceglar, 2013: Uncertainties in a regional climate model in the mid-latitudes due to the nesting technique and the domain size. J. Geophys. Res. - Atmosphere, 118, 6189–6199, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50525

Žagar, N. , L. Isaksen, D. Tan and J. Tribbia, 2013: Balance properties of the short-range forecast errors in the ECMWF 4D-Var ensemble. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 139, 1229-1238. DOI: 10.1002/qj.2033

Blažica, V., N. Žagar, B. Strajnar and J. Cedilnik, 2013: Rotational and divergent kinetic energy in the mesoscale model ALADIN. Tellus A 2013, 65, 18918. (pdf)


Žagar, N. , K. Terasaki and H. Tanaka, 2012: Impact of the vertical discretization of analysis data on the estimates of atmospheric inertio-gravity energy. Mon. Wea. Rev., 140, 2297-2307.

Žagar, N., 2011: Multivariate data assimilation in the tropics by using equatorial waves. Pure and Appl. Geophys., DOI: 10.1007/s00024-011-0375-2. (invited paper) (pdf)


Žagar, N. , G. Skok and J. Tribbia, 2011: Climatology of the ITCZ derived from ERA Interim reanalyses. J. Geophys. Res. - Atmosphere, 116, D15103, doi:10.1029/2011JD015695.

Žagar, N. , J. Tribbia, J. Anderson and K. Raeder, 2011: Balance of the background-error variances in the ensemble assimilation system DART/CAM. Mon. Wea. Rev., 139, 2061-2079.

Terasaki, K., H. Tanaka and N. Žagar , 2011: Energy Spectra of Rossby and Gravity Waves. SOLA, 7, 45-48.


Žagar, N. , J. Tribbia, J. Anderson and K. Raeder, 2010: Corrigendum. Mon. Wea. Rev., 138, 2476-2477.

Žagar, N. , J. Tribbia, J. Anderson, K. Raeder and D.T. Kleist, 2010: Diagnosis of systematic analysis increments by using normal modes. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 136, 61-76. (pdf)


Žagar, N. , J. Tribbia, J. Anderson and K. Raeder, 2009: Uncertainties of estimates of inertio-gravity energy in the atmosphere. Part I: Intercomparison of four analysis systems. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 3837-3857.

Žagar, N. , J. Tribbia, J. Anderson and K. Raeder, 2009: Uncertainties of estimates of inertio-gravity energy in the atmosphere. Part II: Large-scale equatorial waves. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 3858-3873.


Beg Paklar, G., N. Žagar , M. Zagar, R. Vellore, D. Koracin, P.-M. Poulain, M. Orlic, I. Vilibic, V. Dadic, 2008: Modeling the trajectories of satellite-tracked drifters in the Adriatic Sea during a summertime bora event. JGR Oceans, C11S04, 113, doi:10.1029/2007JC004536.

Vilibic, I., G. Beg Paklar, N. Žagar , H. Mihanovic, N. Supic, M. Zagar, N. Domijan, M. Pasaric, 2008: Summer breakout of trapped bottom dense water from the northern Adriatic. JGR Oceans, 113, C11S02, doi:10.1029/2007JC004535.

Žagar, N., A. Stoffelen, G.-J. Marseille, C. Accadia and P. Schluessel, 2008: Impact assessment of simulated Doppler wind lidars with a multivariate variational assimilation in the tropics. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 2443-2460. (pdf)


Žagar, N., Andersson, E., Fisher, M. and A. Untch, 2007: Influence of the quasi-biennial oscillation on the ECMWF model short-range forecast errors in the tropical stratosphere. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 133, 1843-1853. (pdf)


Žagar, N., M. Zagar, J. Cedilnik. G. Gregoric and J. Rakovec, 2006: Validation of mesoscale low-level winds obtained by dynamical downscaling of ERA40 over complex terrain. Tellus, 58A, str. 445-455. (pdf)


Žagar, N., Andersson, E. and M. Fisher, 2005: Balanced tropical data assimilation based on a study of equatorial waves in ECMWF short-range forecast errors. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 131, 987-1011. (pdf)


Žagar, N., N. Gustnafsson and E. Kallen, 2004: Dynamical response of equatorial waves in four-dimensional variational data assimilation. Tellus, 56A, 29-46. (pdf)

Žagar, N., N. Gustafsson and E. Kallen, 2004: Variational data assimilation in the tropics: the impact of a background error constraint. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 130, 103-125. (pdf)

Žagar, N., 2004: Assimilation of equatorial waves by line of sight wind observations. J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 1877-1893. (pdf)

Žagar, N.: Dynamical aspects of data assimilation in the tropics. PhD thesis. Stockholm University 2004. (pdf)